Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.28%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
0.29%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.29%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1528 | 16.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8518 | 153.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0091 | -0.40 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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