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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.63%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

3.64%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

3.69%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 42% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0004
12.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0430
17.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9584
765.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0127
-3.54***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

139 days