Bloomberg US Universal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.58%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.59%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
3.61%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 68% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 16.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0340 | 14.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9478 | 525.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0232 | 5.45*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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