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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Total Return Index Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.23%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

3.24%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

3.29%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Total Return Index Hedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 15, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
18.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
17.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9429
497.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0197
4.36***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days