ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
3.12%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
3.13%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
3.16%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 302 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~302 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 4.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0574 | 6.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9349 | 149.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0110 | 0.77 |
0.998
Persistence302d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0574 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9349 | 149.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0110 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
302 days
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