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V-Lab

ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

2.23%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

2.25%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

2.32%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 293 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 18% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
16.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0577
26.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9347
594.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0105
2.95***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

293 days