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ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

3.12%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

3.13%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

3.16%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 302 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~302 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0002
4.19***
αARCH0.0574
6.55***
βGARCH0.9349
149.74***
γleverage0.0110
0.77

0.998

Persistence

302d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
4.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0574
6.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9349
149.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0110
0.77

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

302 days