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V-Lab

ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

2.39%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

2.41%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.47%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 294 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 18% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
16.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0575
26.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9348
595.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0106
2.99***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

294 days