ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2.23%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
2.25%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.32%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 293 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 18% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 16.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 26.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9347 | 594.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0105 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
293 days
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