ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2.29%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.33%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
2.38%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0484 | 21.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8916 | 264.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0243 | 10.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0021 | 3.04*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7646 | 4.01*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1872 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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