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V-Lab

ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

2.29%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

2.33%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

2.38%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0484
21.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8916
264.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0243
10.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0021
3.04***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7646
4.01***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1872
0.90

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days