Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.65%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
3.65%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.65%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 16.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 18.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9337 | 400.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0239 | 4.69*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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