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Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

3.83%

increased by 0.16%

1 Week

3.83%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

3.81%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0007
4.38***
αARCH0.0433
4.69***
βGARCH0.9296
99.84***
γleverage0.0281
1.35

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
4.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0433
4.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9296
99.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0281
1.35

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days