ICE BofA US Corporate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.03%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.05%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.13%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 59% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 20.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 16.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9509 | 683.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0182 | 5.05*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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