ICE BofA US Corporate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.95%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
4.95%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
4.96%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 5.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9512 | 171.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0180 | 1.26 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9512 | 171.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0180 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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