V-Lab
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4.31%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.32%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.35%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0261 | 10.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0410 | 7.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9504 | 163.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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