ICE BofA US Corporate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3.91%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
3.92%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
3.99%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 02:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0269 | 10.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0410 | 7.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9504 | 163.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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