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V-Lab

ICE BofA US Corporate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

5.01%

increased by 0.58%

1 Week

5.01%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

5.00%

increased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA US Corporate Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0242
10.46***
αARCH0.0409
7.75***
βGARCH0.9506
164.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.45

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0242
10.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0409
7.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9506
164.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.45

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days