Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Corporate 500MM Bond Index Total Return Unhedged EUR Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.53%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.53%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
2.53%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3155 | 8.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 6.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9311 | 93.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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