Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Corporate 500MM Bond Index Total Return Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.78%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
2.79%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.83%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 90% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 17.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0389 | 16.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9371 | 480.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0351 | 8.08*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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