Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Corporate 500MM Bond Index Total Return Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.78%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

2.79%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

2.83%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Corporate 500MM Bond Index Total Return Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 90% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
17.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0389
16.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9371
480.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0351
8.08***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

107 days