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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Credit Baa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.01%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

4.03%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

4.10%

decreased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg US Credit Baa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3380
5.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0611
62.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
5,550.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0951
12.62***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days