V-Lab
Bloomberg US Credit Baa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.10%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
5.11%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
5.16%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3380 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0611 | 62.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 5,550.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0951 | 12.62*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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