ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1.89%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.02%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
2.43%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0698 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1596 | 40.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9811 | 350.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6912 | 13.27*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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