Skip to main content
V-Lab

ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

1.89%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

2.02%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

2.43%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0698
6.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1596
40.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9811
350.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6912
13.27***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days