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ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

2.41%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

2.50%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

2.79%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 5.69 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0693
1.65*
αscore0.1587
10.17***
βpersistence0.9809
87.51***
νDF5.6929
3.30***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0693
1.65*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1587
10.17***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9809
87.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6929
3.30***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days