ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2.41%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
2.50%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.79%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 5.69 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0693 | 1.65* |
| αscore | 0.1587 | 10.17*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9809 | 87.51*** |
| νDF | 5.6929 | 3.30*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0693 | 1.65* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1587 | 10.17*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9809 | 87.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6929 | 3.30*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
Other ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Bond Indices