V-Lab
ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
2.21%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
2.32%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.65%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0692 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1590 | 40.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9809 | 348.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6804 | 13.24*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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