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V-Lab

ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

2.21%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

2.32%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.65%

increased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0692
6.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1590
40.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9809
348.70***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6804
13.24***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days