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V-Lab

ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

1.91%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

2.06%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

2.53%

increased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 179% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1018
26.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7838
176.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1821
29.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0014
3.64***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0519
3.17***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9340
43.80***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days