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V-Lab

ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

1.99%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

2.13%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

2.58%

increased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 180% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1012
26.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7842
176.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1820
29.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0014
3.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0520
3.16***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9336
43.38***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days