V-Lab
ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
1.99%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
2.13%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.58%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 180% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1012 | 26.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7842 | 176.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1820 | 29.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0014 | 3.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0520 | 3.16*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9336 | 43.38*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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