ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1.91%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.06%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
2.53%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 179% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1018 | 26.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7838 | 176.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1821 | 29.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0014 | 3.64*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0519 | 3.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9340 | 43.80*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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