V-Lab
Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
2.74%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
3.23%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
4.62%
increased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2014 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5467 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2159 | 50.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 394.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8739 | 17.92*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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