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V-Lab

Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.54%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

3.07%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

4.51%

increased by 1.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2014 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5467
4.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2159
50.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
394.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8739
17.92***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days