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V-Lab

Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.47%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

2.90%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

4.03%

increased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2014 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 143% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1677
24.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6582
53.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2402
13.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0034
5.36***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1092
6.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8814
46.07***

Persistence:

0.946

Half-life:

12 days