Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.47%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
2.90%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
4.03%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2014 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 143% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1677 | 24.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6582 | 53.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2402 | 13.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0034 | 5.36*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1092 | 6.71*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8814 | 46.07*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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