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Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

5.61%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

5.62%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

5.67%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 1, 2003 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 197 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2109
8.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0372
36.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9965
2,730.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.3622
3.98***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

197 days