Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
6.94%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
7.03%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
7.36%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2003 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6204 | 9.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 5.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9311 | 84.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0021 | -4.49*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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