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ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

7.47%

increased by 0.71%

1 Week

7.46%

increased by 0.70%

1 Month

7.41%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~183 daysv = 8.40 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.1233
2.14**
αscore0.0351
10.66***
βpersistence0.9962
619.54***
νDF8.3950
1.53

0.996

Persistence

183d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.1233
2.14**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0351
10.66***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9962
619.54***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3950
1.53

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

183 days