ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
5.85%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
5.85%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.84%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 178 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1220 | 8.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0354 | 42.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9961 | 2,394.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3913 | 6.07*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
178 days
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