ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
6.11%
1 Week
6.05%
1 Month
6.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 430 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 33% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 6.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9769 | 349.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0061 | 6.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1038 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3177 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
430 days
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