V-Lab
ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
7.13%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
7.10%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
7.01%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 54% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0389 | 10.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8471 | 38.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0211 | 4.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0003 | 1.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0327 | 2.12** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9652 | 59.60*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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