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V-Lab

ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

6.11%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

6.05%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

6.03%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 430 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 33% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0185
6.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9769
349.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0061
6.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1038
0.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3177
0.23
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

430 days