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V-Lab

ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

7.13%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

7.10%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

7.01%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 54% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0389
10.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8471
38.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0211
4.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0003
1.61
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0327
2.12**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9652
59.60***

Persistence:

0.897

Half-life:

6 days