Bloomberg China Treasury + Policy Bank Bond Index Total Return Unhedged CNY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.76%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
0.84%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
1.06%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 2, 2016 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0082 | 5.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1132 | 15.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9506 | 101.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0922 | 6.97*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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