Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg China Treasury + Policy Bank Bond Index Total Return Unhedged CNY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.76%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

0.84%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

1.06%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg China Treasury + Policy Bank Bond Index Total Return Unhedged CNY GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 2, 2016 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0082
5.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1132
15.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9506
101.70***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0922
6.97***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days