Bloomberg China Treasury + Policy Bank Bond Index Total Return Unhedged CNY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.17%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.44%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
1.57%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 2, 2016 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7763 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4247 | 4.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1114 | 1.51 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 2.7585 | 3.71*** |
| γ2 | -3.6440 | -3.19*** |
| γ3 | 1.7176 | 2.19** |
| γ4 | -2.5030 | -3.24*** |
| γ5 | 3.1324 | 3.31*** |
| γ6 | -2.5590 | -3.17*** |
| γ7 | 2.4286 | 3.86*** |
| γ8 | -2.0301 | -5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.536
Half-life:
1 days
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