Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.47%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
5.58%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
5.96%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0656 | 7.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0786 | 5.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8971 | 54.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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