Bloomberg Asian Pacific Japanese Yen TR Index Value Unhedged JPY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.29%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
3.98%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
3.33%
decreased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3158 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2195 | 4.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6489 | 11.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.2013 | -0.79 |
| γ2 | 1.3117 | 3.30*** |
| γ3 | -2.0086 | -7.16*** |
| γ4 | 1.1122 | 5.74*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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