Bloomberg Asian Pacific Japanese Yen TR Index Value Unhedged JPY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.11%
1 Week
3.11%
1 Month
3.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0415 | 1.99** |
| αscore | 0.0938 | 12.30*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9958 | 537.09*** |
| νDF | 5.2684 | 4.27*** |
0.996
Persistence163d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0415 | 1.99** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0938 | 12.30*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 537.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2684 | 4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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