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Bloomberg Asian Pacific Japanese Yen TR Index Value Unhedged JPY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

3.11%

increased by 0.58%

1 Week

3.11%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

3.12%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Asian Pacific Japanese Yen TR Index Value Unhedged JPY GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~163 daysv = 5.27 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0415
1.99**
αscore0.0938
12.30***
βpersistence0.9958
537.09***
νDF5.2684
4.27***

0.996

Persistence

163d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0415
1.99**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0938
12.30***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9958
537.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2684
4.27***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

163 days