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V-Lab

Bloomberg Asian Pacific Japanese Yen TR Index Value Unhedged JPY Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

5.71%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

5.94%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

6.35%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg Asian Pacific Japanese Yen TR Index Value Unhedged JPY SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3002
5.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2152
4.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6544
11.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.2390
-0.93
γ21.4004
3.40***
γ3-2.1685
-6.17***
γ41.5231
2.63***

Persistence:

0.870

Half-life:

5 days