Bloomberg Asian Pacific Japanese Yen TR Index Value Unhedged JPY Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.71%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
5.94%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
6.35%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3002 | 5.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2152 | 4.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6544 | 11.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.2390 | -0.93 |
| γ2 | 1.4004 | 3.40*** |
| γ3 | -2.1685 | -6.17*** |
| γ4 | 1.5231 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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