Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.35%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.48%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.92%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6749 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0620 | 7.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9171 | 82.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2041 | 3.78*** |
| γ2 | -0.3343 | -4.24*** |
| γ3 | 0.1812 | 3.63*** |
| γ4 | -0.0818 | -2.08** |
| γ5 | 0.0311 | 0.80 |
| γ6 | 0.0335 | 0.93 |
| γ7 | -0.0553 | -2.31** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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