Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
7.33%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
7.71%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
8.83%
increased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7038 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0644 | 6.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9035 | 63.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3059 | 4.70*** |
| γ2 | -0.4710 | -4.96*** |
| γ3 | 0.2305 | 4.24*** |
| γ4 | -0.1265 | -2.76*** |
| γ5 | 0.0965 | 2.10** |
| γ6 | -0.0769 | -1.69* |
| γ7 | 0.1573 | 2.93*** |
| γ8 | -0.3313 | -3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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