Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.52%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
3.56%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
3.75%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 14% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0139 | -10.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1367 | 31.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9909 | 1,608.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0087 | -2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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