Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.48%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
3.50%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
3.58%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4099 trading days (~16.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 16% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 7.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0565 | 38.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9435 | 585.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0383 | 3.10*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9878 | 36.63*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4099 days
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