Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.36%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
3.37%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
3.38%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 466 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0849 | 10.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0456 | 61.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9985 | 5,705.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2787 | 25.99*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
466 days
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