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Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.48%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

3.50%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

3.58%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
11.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0525
22.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9434
615.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0082
1.90*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days