Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.48%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
3.50%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
3.58%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 11.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 22.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9434 | 615.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0082 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
Other Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices