Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.69%
1 Week
2.71%
1 Month
2.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 29% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 14.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9640 | 574.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0080 | 5.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0267 | 1.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1842 | 1.72* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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