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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.69%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

2.71%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

2.75%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 29% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0274
14.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9640
574.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0080
5.44***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0267
1.21
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1842
1.72*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

152 days