Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.61%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.61%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.62%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 30% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 11.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 17.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9524 | 649.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0107 | -2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
102 days
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