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Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

2.93%

increased by 0.34%

1 Week

2.93%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

2.91%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0002
3.29***
αARCH0.0469
4.56***
βGARCH0.9500
159.03***
γleverage-0.0092
-0.59

0.992

Persistence

90d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
3.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0469
4.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9500
159.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0092
-0.59

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days