Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
2.93%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
2.93%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
2.91%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 3.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0469 | 4.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9500 | 159.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.0092 | -0.59 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0469 | 4.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 159.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0092 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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