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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.61%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

2.61%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

2.62%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 30% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
11.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0462
17.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9524
649.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0107
-2.77***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

102 days