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V-Lab

ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

4.70%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Week

270,258.45%

increased by 270,252.80%

1 Month

35,713,963,655,690,754,000,000,000.00%

increased by 35,713,963,655,690,754,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7288
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0212
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0086
22.76***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9717
52.29***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-