Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

3.08%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

3.09%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

3.13%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1993 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 133 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 37% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0315
14.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9575
977.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0115
4.05***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0390
0.21
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1885
0.23
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

133 days