Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.10%
1 Week
1.24%
1 Month
1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7902 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0097 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4003 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.9493 | 54.12*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1144 | 493.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6785 | 2,725.07*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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