V-Lab
Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.08%
1 Week
3.09%
1 Month
3.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1993 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 133 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 37% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0315 | 14.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9575 | 977.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0115 | 4.05*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0390 | 0.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1885 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
133 days
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