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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026

1 Day

1.13%

decreased by 4.73%

1 Week

1.20%

decreased by 4.66%

1 Month

1.09%

decreased by 4.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:58 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
m31
α0.79027,901,630.00
β0.009796,900.00
γ0.40034,002,930.00
λ14.949354.12
λ20.1144493.07
λ30.67852,725.07
Estimation Period:
Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021