Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1.13%
decreased by 4.73%
1 Week
1.20%
decreased by 4.66%
1 Month
1.09%
decreased by 4.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | ||
| 0.7902 | 7,901,630.00 | |
| 0.0097 | 96,900.00 | |
| 0.4003 | 4,002,930.00 | |
| 4.9493 | 54.12 | |
| 0.1144 | 493.07 | |
| 0.6785 | 2,725.07 |
Estimation Period:
Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021
Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021
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