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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

1.10%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Week

1.24%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Month

1.14%

decreased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7902
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0097
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4003
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.9493
54.12***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1144
493.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6785
2,725.07***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days