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V-Lab

ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

3.15%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

3.51%

increased by 0.51%

1 Month

4.58%

increased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1125
3.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2032
12.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7777
52.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0654
1.13
γ2-0.2258
-2.60***
γ30.3405
5.51***
γ4-0.3253
-6.33***
γ50.2359
4.49***
γ6-0.1126
-2.16**
γ70.0311
0.64
γ8-0.0208
-0.59

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days