ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
3.15%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
3.51%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
4.58%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1125 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2032 | 12.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7777 | 52.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0654 | 1.13 |
| γ2 | -0.2258 | -2.60*** |
| γ3 | 0.3405 | 5.51*** |
| γ4 | -0.3253 | -6.33*** |
| γ5 | 0.2359 | 4.49*** |
| γ6 | -0.1126 | -2.16** |
| γ7 | 0.0311 | 0.64 |
| γ8 | -0.0208 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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