V-Lab
Bloomberg US MBS Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.01%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
5.04%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
5.09%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 232% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0386 | 12.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8256 | 60.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0897 | 13.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 3.33*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0815 | 2.89*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9185 | 32.24*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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