Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.74%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.76%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.81%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4909 | 5.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 8.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9474 | 149.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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