Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.78%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.79%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
2.81%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0573 | 6.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 51.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 2,564.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5924 | 8.61*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
267 days
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