Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.69%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
2.70%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.74%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 13.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0485 | 35.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9474 | 626.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0121 | 2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
167 days
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