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Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.17%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

4.16%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

4.12%

decreased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~145 daysv = 5.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0353
1.44
αscore0.0555
12.50***
βpersistence0.9952
339.67***
νDF5.6998
3.03***

0.995

Persistence

145d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0353
1.44
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0555
12.50***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9952
339.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6998
3.03***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

145 days