Bloomberg Pan Euro High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.19%
1 Week
3.21%
1 Month
3.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0559 | 3.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9193 | 88.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.0498 | 1.81* |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 3.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9193 | 88.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0498 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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