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Bloomberg Pan European Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.05%

increased by 0.22%

1 Week

4.05%

increased by 0.22%

1 Month

4.05%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Pan European Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 67 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8641
10.01***
αARCH0.0478
6.92***
βGARCH0.9419
112.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-1.21

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8641
10.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0478
6.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9419
112.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-1.21

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days