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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.36%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

4.36%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

4.35%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 130% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0224
10.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9121
185.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0292
12.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0157
2.76***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6906
6.23***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1691
1.08

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days