Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.36%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
4.36%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
4.35%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 130% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0224 | 10.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9121 | 185.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0292 | 12.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0157 | 2.76*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6906 | 6.23*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1691 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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