Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.88%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
5.90%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
5.98%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 247 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2955 | 5.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0328 | 38.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 2,313.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8594 | 6.48*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
247 days
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