Bloomberg Sterling Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
6.32%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
6.39%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.62%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8866 | 8.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0482 | 5.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9358 | 88.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0054 | 2.53** |
| γ2 | -0.0081 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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