Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.95%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.97%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.05%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 30% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 13.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0385 | 19.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9512 | 581.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0115 | 2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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