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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.95%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

3.97%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

4.05%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 15, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 30% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
13.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0385
19.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9512
581.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0115
2.88***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

152 days