Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.93%
increased by 0.41%
1 Week
4.94%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
4.96%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~132 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 3.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0386 | 4.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9499 | 146.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0124 | 0.78 |
0.995
Persistence132d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0386 | 4.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9499 | 146.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0124 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
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