V-Lab
ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
2.10%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.18%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.41%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5431 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1514 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7899 | 39.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1599 | 1.46 |
| γ2 | -0.2827 | -1.92* |
| γ3 | 0.2709 | 3.81*** |
| γ4 | -0.3103 | -5.23*** |
| γ5 | 0.3047 | 4.97*** |
| γ6 | -0.2909 | -4.52*** |
| γ7 | 0.3371 | 5.12*** |
| γ8 | -0.3172 | -5.33*** |
| γ9 | 0.1584 | 3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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