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V-Lab

ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

1.85%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

1.97%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

2.29%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5381
2.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1518
8.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7890
38.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.1622
1.46
γ2-0.2879
-1.92*
γ30.2775
3.85***
γ4-0.3182
-5.29***
γ50.3125
5.03***
γ6-0.2965
-4.59***
γ70.3365
5.18***
γ8-0.3081
-5.27***
γ90.1483
3.73***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days