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ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

2.54%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

2.56%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

2.66%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 6.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0431
2.01**
αscore0.1100
10.32***
βpersistence0.9838
123.07***
νDF6.5838
2.24**

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0431
2.01**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1100
10.32***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9838
123.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5838
2.24**

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days