ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1.78%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
1.84%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
2.07%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0435 | 7.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 41.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9842 | 494.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5647 | 9.04*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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