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V-Lab

ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

1.78%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

1.84%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

2.07%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0435
7.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1102
41.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9842
494.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5647
9.04***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days