V-Lab
ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
2.18%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.23%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.38%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0432 | 8.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1100 | 41.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9840 | 495.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5898 | 8.96*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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